Model: Geometric Brownian Motion with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean-reversion overlay. CRISIS RECALIBRATION: Drift and volatility parameters have been sharply increased for oil-linked commodities (solvents, resins, energy) and freight to reflect the Strait of Hormuz closure shock starting Feb 28, 2026.
Crisis assumptions: WTI at $98.71/bbl (+47% since crisis start, second consecutive day near $100). Brent at $101.15. Hormuz traffic near zero after IRGC declared strait closed Mar 2. VLCC daily rates +145%. Container rates doubled — Asia-USWC $2,127/FEU, Asia-Europe $2,707/FEU (Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd suspended transits). Qatar LNG disrupted. EU gas +20–40%. Solvents (xylene, MEK, butyl acetate) spiking 25–45% tracking crude. Petrochemical-derived resins (epoxy, PU, alkyd) up 10–12% on BPA/propylene oxide pass-through.
Solvent weighting (revised): Solvents now weighted at 25% of PMCI (up from 15%), reflecting actual Phila formulation data: Eagle Speed antifouling ~45–50% solvent, PhilaCric alkyd ~55% solvent, PhilaDur epoxy ~26% solvent, PU topcoats ~50% solvent, plus standalone thinner sales (PH 300, PH 400). Weighted average across Phila's marine product range = ~38% solvent by volume.
Simulation: 1,000 Monte Carlo paths per commodity, aggregated through regional weight vectors. Confidence intervals represent 10th–90th percentile (80% band). Bands are substantially wider than pre-crisis due to elevated volatility.
Key risk: With Hormuz now closed for over 2 weeks and WTI approaching $100, Qatar's energy minister has warned crude could reach $150/bbl. That scenario would push the PMCI Global index above 145. Conversely, a ceasefire would trigger rapid mean-reversion in freight and solvents (30–60 day lag for chemicals).